Thursday, November 20th, 2008

A photograph of the great deep-water tank hall of an aquarium, late in the day, nearly empty. One enormous wall of glass fills the frame. In the upper part of the tank a kelp forest hangs in cold olive-green water, lit faintly from above, small silver fish moving through it; below the kelp line the water darkens by degrees into a true lightless black. The dim hall is lit only by the tank's own green glow. At the center of the frame, close to the glass and seen from behind as a dark silhouette rimmed in green light, stands a man in a grey suit a half size too big — tidy lavender side-parted hair — perfectly still, dwarfed by the glass, facing the point where the kelp light gives out, his hands clasped behind his back holding a small brown paper bag.

The trench

S&P 500 752.44 · −54.14 · −6.71%

Below the kelp line, where the light does not reach. The old bear's floor, kept for six years, given up in an afternoon.

The photograph Retail at the Deep Tank

The day's protagonist

Citigroup C

Move: −26% to $4.71 — half its value gone in a week; the biggest bank of the boom, priced like a rumor

The October rescues had bought exactly a month. In November the market went hunting for the next weakest thing and found the biggest bank of the boom: Citigroup lost a quarter of its value on Wednesday and another quarter on this day, closing at $4.71 — down 83 percent on the year. Under that weight the index did what six years of bad days had never done: it broke 776.76, the 2002 bear's closing low, the sea-floor this book once drew as dried kelp, and settled at 752.44 — the lowest close since April 1997. That Sunday the government guaranteed $306 billion of Citi's assets. The immediate low held until February; the final one is two pages away.

The deeper account

Two sessions, −12.4%: Wednesday's −6.12% and this day's −6.71% were the crisis's worst back-to-back pair.

The trench palette answers the dried-kelp page directly: 2002's low was a place the market ground down to over thirty-one months. 2008 fell through it in one.

The morning's other number: new jobless claims at a sixteen-year high. The crisis had left the banks and entered the payrolls.

The next day rose 6.32% on a leaked name — Geithner to Treasury. That the market would rally that hard on a personnel report measures how little else it had to hold.

In the photograph of this day he stands at the glass where the light gives out. Below the kelp line nothing is lit; retail stayed until closing anyway.

This was the autumn's low but not the bear's. February broke it quietly, and March finished the job — the next page.

The artifact

THE DEEP TANK · KEEPER'S DEPTH CARD · THURSDAY, NOV 20 READINGS, BY LIGHT 806.58 — wednesday's mark 776.76 — the old floor, kept six years PASSED TODAY, ON THE WAY DOWN 752.44 — lowest light SINCE APRIL 1997 below this: no readings. no light. BELOW THE OLD FLOOR KEEPER'S ENTRY the big one lost a quarter of itself today. again. $306,000,000,000 GUARANTEED BY SUNDAY THE FEBRUARY AND MARCH PAGES LIE DEEPER STILL
The keeper's depth card — filled in at the glass, at closing time

The card reads like the tank looks: light, then less light, then none. The middle line is the one the six years cared about — 776.76, the dried-kelp floor of the last bear, passed in an afternoon under the weight of a four-dollar bank. The keeper's entry needs no name; everyone in the hall knew which one the big one was.

Read the depth card

Printed text is shown plain; the keeper's entries are shown in script.

THE DEEP TANK · KEEPER'S DEPTH CARD · THURSDAY, NOV 20 · READINGS, BY LIGHT

  • 806.58 — wednesday's mark
  • 776.76 — the old floor, kept six years. PASSED TODAY, ON THE WAY DOWN
  • 752.44 — lowest light. SINCE APRIL 1997
  • below this: no readings. no light.
  • BELOW THE OLD FLOOR
  • KEEPER'S ENTRY: the big one lost a quarter of itself today. again.
  • $306,000,000,000 GUARANTEED BY SUNDAY · THE FEBRUARY AND MARCH PAGES LIE DEEPER STILL

On Thursday, November 20, 2008, the S&P 500 fell 6.71 percent to 752.44 — its first close below the 2002 bear market's floor of 776.76 and its lowest since April 1997 — as Citigroup fell 26 percent to $4.71, down 83 percent on the year. That Sunday the government guaranteed $306 billion of Citigroup's assets. The next session rose 6.32 percent on a leaked report of the incoming Treasury secretary's name.

The ledger — what actually happened

Measure Close Change Marginalia
S&P 500 752.44 −54.14 · −6.71% the lowest close since April 1997 — eleven and a half years, unwound
The 2002 floor 776.76 → broken the old bear's bottom, kept for six years, given up in an afternoon
Citigroup $4.71 −26% on the day, −83% on the year; the state guaranteed $306 billion of it that Sunday
What followed +6.32% next day on a leak — the next Treasury secretary's name; bottoms are made of such things

Sources

  1. TradingEconomics, November 20, 2008 — S&P at the Lowest Level Since 1997 — https://tradingeconomics.com/articles/11202008132217.htm
  2. CNNMoney, November 20, 2008 — Saudi prince buys, but Citi stock plunges — https://money.cnn.com/2008/11/20/news/companies/citi_stake/index.htm?postversion=2008112021
  3. CNNMoney, November 21, 2008 — Citigroup stock falls as firm mulls next move — https://money.cnn.com/2008/11/21/news/companies/citigroup/index.htm?postversion=2008112117
  4. Public record — SPX 752.44, first close below the 2002 low of 776.76; Citi rescue announced November 23