Wednesday, February 19th, 2020

A photograph of the top of a modest grassy hill on a mild, hazy February late morning, the whole world in undyed cream and linen tones — pale milky sky, dry winter grass, thin white haze closing off any view in every direction, so the hilltop could be anywhere and its height is invisible. At the crest stands a modest weathered summit marker post, its small plaque blank. Two middle-aged walkers sit on a bench eating sandwiches from wax paper, a thermos between them, entirely unbothered; a dog noses the grass; the path down is swallowed by haze after a few meters. At the marker, a step apart, seen from behind, stands a man in full clown makeup and a grey suit a half size too big — tidy lavender side-parted hair — perfectly still, facing the blank marker and the haze beyond it, his hands clasped behind his back holding a small brown paper bag. Nobody is taking a photograph. Nobody knows.

Unremarkable

S&P 500 3,386.15 · +15.86 · +0.47%

The top of the longest bull market ever recorded, and nothing about the tape marks it. This is what a peak looks like from the inside.

The photograph Retail at the Summit

The day's protagonist

The ordinary day — no symbol.

Move: A fifteen-point range and an all-time high — the last one for six months

Two days earlier Apple had withdrawn its March-quarter guidance, the first American giant to say the word coronavirus to its shareholders and mean it. The market read a supply-chain problem in a distant province, and bought: Apple closed up one and a half percent, the S&P closed at a record, the Nasdaq too. The hospitals in Wuhan were already full and the cruise ship in Yokohama was already a news story. None of it was secret; all of it was priced at zero. Twenty-three trading sessions later this index would be thirty-four percent lower — the fastest bear market ever recorded. The peak of the longest bull market in history was a quiet Wednesday with a fifteen-point range, and nobody photographed it.

The deeper account

It was a genuine record — an all-time closing high, beating the previous session's by a point. The record is honest and terrible.

Wing 5 opens here, and its five pages are the whole pandemic crash: the peak, the halt, the worst day since 1987, the floor, and the best day since 1933 — thirty-three calendar days, end to end.

This book's other peaks — the millennium close, the Nasdaq's 5,048 — share this page's register: near-flat days, quiet moods, no ceremony. A market never knows it is at the top.

The news was all published. Apple's warning, the Diamond Princess, the Wuhan lockdown of January 23 — the information was free and the price was a record. That gap is the only lesson this page teaches.

The recovery took until August 18, 2020 — a hundred and twenty-six sessions — making this the peak of both the longest bull market and the shortest bear.

The artifact

KEPT IN A TIN AT THE MARKER SUMMIT REGISTER feb 19 nice out. quiet. no view. CONDITIONS haze in every direction. HEIGHT a record, by one point over yesterday. nobody mentioned it. THE NEXT ENTRY IS DATED AUGUST 18 HIGH POINT TWENTY-THREE SESSIONS LATER THE TRAIL WAS 34 PERCENT LOWER NO ONE ON THE SUMMIT COULD SEE DOWN
The summit register — one line, and then the empty rules

The entry is three words longer than the day deserved, by the standards of the people writing it. A record height, cleared by a single point, logged without a mention; sandwiches; haze in every direction. What makes the page unbearable is not what it says but what follows it — four empty lines, and a register that stays shut until the eighteenth of August.

Read the register

Printed text is shown plain; handwritten entries are shown in script.

SUMMIT REGISTER · KEPT IN A TIN AT THE MARKER

  • feb 19 — nice out. quiet. no view.
  • CONDITIONS: haze in every direction.
  • HEIGHT: a record, by one point over yesterday. nobody mentioned it.
  • (four empty lines) — THE NEXT ENTRY IS DATED AUGUST 18
  • HIGH POINT  TWENTY-THREE SESSIONS LATER THE TRAIL WAS 34 PERCENT LOWER · NO ONE ON THE SUMMIT COULD SEE DOWN

The S&P closed at 3,386.15 — an all-time record, one point above the previous session's — with an intraday high of 3,393.52 that did not print again until August. Twenty-three trading sessions later the index was 33.9 percent lower: the fastest bear market in recorded history, at the peak of the longest bull.

The ledger — what actually happened

Measure Close Change Marginalia
S&P 500 3,386.15 +15.86 · +0.47% an all-time record close — the last before the pandemic fall
The intraday high 3,393.52 a record too; the level did not print again until August
Two days earlier Apple withdraws guidance the first S&P 500 giant to name the virus to its shareholders — the stock rose anyway
What followed −33.9% in twenty-three trading sessions: the fastest bear market in recorded history

Sources

  1. CNBC, February 19, 2020 — S&P 500 and Nasdaq jump to record highs — https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html
  2. Forbes, February 17, 2020 — Apple Withdraws Its March Quarter Revenue Guidance Due To The Coronavirus — https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/apple-withdraws-its-march-quarter-revenue-guidance-due-to-the-coronavirus/
  3. Washington Post — S&P 500 hits record high, ending shortest bear market in history — https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/18/stocks-record-high-sp-500/
  4. Public record — SPX record close 3,386.15 (prior record 3,385.09); −33.9% peak to trough by March 23