Unremarkable
S&P 500 3,386.15 · +15.86 · +0.47%
The top of the longest bull market ever recorded, and nothing about the tape marks it. This is what a peak looks like from the inside.
The day's protagonist
The ordinary day — no symbol.
Move: A fifteen-point range and an all-time high — the last one for six months
Two days earlier Apple had withdrawn its March-quarter guidance, the first American giant to say the word coronavirus to its shareholders and mean it. The market read a supply-chain problem in a distant province, and bought: Apple closed up one and a half percent, the S&P closed at a record, the Nasdaq too. The hospitals in Wuhan were already full and the cruise ship in Yokohama was already a news story. None of it was secret; all of it was priced at zero. Twenty-three trading sessions later this index would be thirty-four percent lower — the fastest bear market ever recorded. The peak of the longest bull market in history was a quiet Wednesday with a fifteen-point range, and nobody photographed it.
The deeper account
It was a genuine record — an all-time closing high, beating the previous session's by a point. The record is honest and terrible.
Wing 5 opens here, and its five pages are the whole pandemic crash: the peak, the halt, the worst day since 1987, the floor, and the best day since 1933 — thirty-three calendar days, end to end.
This book's other peaks — the millennium close, the Nasdaq's 5,048 — share this page's register: near-flat days, quiet moods, no ceremony. A market never knows it is at the top.
The news was all published. Apple's warning, the Diamond Princess, the Wuhan lockdown of January 23 — the information was free and the price was a record. That gap is the only lesson this page teaches.
The recovery took until August 18, 2020 — a hundred and twenty-six sessions — making this the peak of both the longest bull market and the shortest bear.
The artifact
The entry is three words longer than the day deserved, by the standards of the people writing it. A record height, cleared by a single point, logged without a mention; sandwiches; haze in every direction. What makes the page unbearable is not what it says but what follows it — four empty lines, and a register that stays shut until the eighteenth of August.
Read the register
Printed text is shown plain; handwritten entries are shown in script.
SUMMIT REGISTER · KEPT IN A TIN AT THE MARKER
- feb 19 — nice out. quiet. no view.
- CONDITIONS: haze in every direction.
- HEIGHT: a record, by one point over yesterday. nobody mentioned it.
- (four empty lines) — THE NEXT ENTRY IS DATED AUGUST 18
- HIGH POINT TWENTY-THREE SESSIONS LATER THE TRAIL WAS 34 PERCENT LOWER · NO ONE ON THE SUMMIT COULD SEE DOWN
The S&P closed at 3,386.15 — an all-time record, one point above the previous session's — with an intraday high of 3,393.52 that did not print again until August. Twenty-three trading sessions later the index was 33.9 percent lower: the fastest bear market in recorded history, at the peak of the longest bull.
The ledger — what actually happened
| Measure | Close | Change | Marginalia |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 3,386.15 | +15.86 · +0.47% | an all-time record close — the last before the pandemic fall |
| The intraday high | 3,393.52 | a record too; the level did not print again until August | |
| Two days earlier | Apple withdraws guidance | the first S&P 500 giant to name the virus to its shareholders — the stock rose anyway | |
| What followed | −33.9% | in twenty-three trading sessions: the fastest bear market in recorded history |
Sources
- CNBC, February 19, 2020 — S&P 500 and Nasdaq jump to record highs — https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html
- Forbes, February 17, 2020 — Apple Withdraws Its March Quarter Revenue Guidance Due To The Coronavirus — https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/apple-withdraws-its-march-quarter-revenue-guidance-due-to-the-coronavirus/
- Washington Post — S&P 500 hits record high, ending shortest bear market in history — https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/18/stocks-record-high-sp-500/
- Public record — SPX record close 3,386.15 (prior record 3,385.09); −33.9% peak to trough by March 23