Which way she burns
S&P 500 53.49 · −1.47 · −2.67% · the morning after the address
The address was seventeen minutes long and came at seven on Monday evening, after the close — so Monday could only trade the rumor of it, and Tuesday had to trade the thing itself. It broke 2.67 percent, the sharpest fall in four months, with defense issues about the only strength. And then the strangest week the tape ever carried: Wednesday the ships stopped and the market bought back the whole break and more; the single most dangerous day — the Saturday the U-2 went down — fell on a closed market; and by Monday's close the index stood above where the crisis had found it. The candle burned both directions and ended where it began.
The day's protagonist
The address — no symbol.
Move: −2.67% — seventeen minutes, priced the morning after
Kennedy spoke at seven on Monday evening, October 22 — seventeen minutes, announcing that offensive missile sites were being prepared in Cuba and that a quarantine of the island would begin. The market had traded Monday on nothing but the rumor of a major announcement, down about one percent; Tuesday was the first session that could answer the speech, and it broke 2.67 percent, the sharpest fall since June, with defense issues about the only strength on the board. What followed was the strangest week the tape has ever carried. Wednesday morning the quarantine took effect and the Soviet ships stopped short of the line — the market bought back the entire break and more, up 3.22 percent. Thursday and Friday drifted. Saturday — the day the U-2 went down over Cuba, the closest the whole thing came to the end of everything — the exchange was closed. Sunday morning Radio Moscow carried Khrushchev's withdrawal, and Monday closed above where the crisis had found it. Net cost of the most dangerous week in the market's history: nothing. The June bear had cost five times more.
The deeper account
The archive already keeps this year's real damage five months earlier: May 28, the Kennedy Slide's worst day, part of a 28 percent bear that bottomed June 26. October's crisis low held two percent above that bottom. The bear had already done what the missiles could not.
The most dangerous day of the crisis never traded at all. The U-2 was shot down on Saturday the twenty-seventh — Black Saturday — with the exchange dark; by Monday's open the withdrawal was already on the radio. The tape skipped the worst of it the way a sleeper skips midnight.
In the photograph of this day the television store does the lighting. She stands between the glowing window and the dark street, lit exactly half by each, and the one who follows her days cannot tell — has never been able to tell — which way she is about to burn. Wednesday she rose. He was mid-turn the other way.
The ground is the street's dark; the pigment is the amber of the screens — the seam-color, the crisis's only light.
The artifact
Somebody kept Monday's television listings, the seven o'clock line struck through by hand. The address was seventeen minutes long and came after the close, so Tuesday had to do all the pricing at once — down 2.67 percent, the sharpest in four months, with defense issues about the only strength. Then the ships stopped and Wednesday bought the whole break back. The most dangerous day of the crisis, the Saturday the U-2 went down, never traded at all; by Monday's open the withdrawal was on the radio. The clerk's arithmetic for the week the world nearly ended: net, nothing. The bear had already done worse in June, and the page one spring earlier in this archive is the proof.
Read the card
Printed text is shown plain; the clerk's entries are shown in script.
TELEVISION · MONDAY EVENING, OCTOBER 22, 1962
- 6:30 — [printed program]
- 7:00 — [struck through] all networks — the president. seventeen minutes.
- 7:30 — regular programming will resume.
- tuesday, the five hundred: 54.96 → 53.49 · down 2.67 percent — the sharpest in four months.
- wednesday: up 3.22. the ships stopped.
- MARGIN CLERK'S HAND: sold the morning after. bought back wednesday. net: nothing.
- THE WORST DAY FELL ON A SATURDAY. THE EXCHANGE WAS CLOSED.
On Tuesday, October 23, 1962 — the first session after Kennedy's quarantine address — the S&P 500 fell 2.67 percent to 53.49 and the Dow fell 1.85 percent to 558.06. The quarantine took effect Wednesday morning and the market rose 3.22 percent as the Soviet ships stopped; after Khrushchev's Sunday broadcast the index closed the crisis above where it began, still 2.2 percent above the June bear low it never threatened.
The ledger — what actually happened
| Measure | Close | Change | Marginalia |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 53.49 | −1.47 · −2.67% | the first session after the address — "losses were the sharpest in four months"; per the official series |
| Dow Jones | 558.06 · −1.85% | per the daily record; defense issues about the only strength | |
| The next day | +3.22% | the quarantine took effect at 10 a.m. and the ships stopped; the whole break bought back at once | |
| The June low | 52.32 — held | the crisis closed 2.2% above the Kennedy Slide's June 26 bottom; the missiles never undercut the bear | |
| The week, net | 55.59 → 55.72 | Friday before the address to the Monday after Khrushchev's broadcast: the most dangerous week ever traded cost the tape nothing |
Sources
- S&P 500 daily series (official back-history) — the crisis-week closes, October 19–29, 1962
- MeasuringWorth — Daily Closing Values of the Dow Jones Average (the Dow closes, October 19–29, 1962) — https://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/DJA/
- Burdekin & Siklos, "Armageddon and the Stock Market: US, Canadian and Mexican Market Responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis" — the press record ("losses were the sharpest in four months", Globe and Mail, Oct 24, 1962) and the cross-section of Oct 23
- John F. Kennedy Presidential Library — the October 22 address, 7:00 p.m., seventeen minutes