The promise not to look
S&P 500 3,861.59 · −56.73 · −1.45%
A bank of two hundred billion dollars failed before lunch, faster than any bank in American history, and the index gave up one and a half percent.
The day's protagonist
Held to maturity SIVB
Move: $42 billion out in a day — the fastest bank run in American history
Silicon Valley Bank had taken in enormous deposits during the technology boom and put them into long-dated bonds bought when money cost nothing. Then rates rose and the bonds fell, and the loss stayed invisible because of an accounting category called held to maturity — which is, in plain terms, a promise never to sell and therefore never to look. On Wednesday the bank looked: it sold a portion, booked a $1.8 billion loss, and asked the market for capital. Its depositors were venture funds and startups, one dense network reading the same group chats, and on Thursday they moved forty-two billion dollars out in a single day. By Friday morning another hundred billion was queued. Regulators closed the bank before lunch — two hundred and nine billion in assets, the second-largest failure in American history. The S&P fell one and a half percent.
The deeper account
The run's speed is the page's real subject: 1930s depositors queued in the street; 2023 depositors moved forty-two billion dollars by phone in an afternoon, in a coordinated panic conducted over group chats.
The Bear Stearns page in the third wing is this day's ancestor — a wholesale run by fax and phone. Fifteen years of technology cut the duration from a week to a day.
The instrument that killed the bank was the safest one it owned. Treasuries do not default; they only fall in price, and a bank that must sell has no use for the difference.
On Sunday the Treasury, Fed and FDIC guaranteed all deposits at SVB and Signature and opened a lending facility valuing bonds at par — the accounting fiction made official, and it worked.
First Republic failed in May, larger than either. The index made a new high for the year within weeks of that, too.
The artifact
The ticket's three printed promises are the whole mechanism: deposited in the good years, returnable on demand, held to maturity — do not look. On Wednesday the cloakroom looked; on Thursday the line moved forty-two billion through the counter by phone; before Friday's lunch the rail was bare and the hall was closed — two hundred and nine billion, the second-largest failure in American history. The fine print arrived two days later, and it worked.
Read the ticket
Printed text is shown plain; handwritten entries are shown in script.
MUNICIPAL HALL · CLOAK ROOM · CLAIM TICKET · Nº 209
- DEPOSITED: everything, during the good years
- RETURNABLE: on demand — it says so here
- HELD: to maturity. do not look.
- NOTES: 42 taken back thursday. rail bare by friday lunch. the line was longer than the rail.
- RAIL EMPTY SUNDAY: THE TOWN GUARANTEED EVERY COAT IN EVERY CLOAKROOM · TICKETS ACCEPTED AT PAR
Regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank before Friday's lunch — $209 billion in assets, the second-largest failure in American history, after $42 billion left in a single day and $100 billion more queued. The index gave up 1.45 percent: an ordinary bad Friday, on an extraordinary day. Signature Bank followed Sunday, and the backstop arrived the same evening, valuing the bonds at par.
The ledger — what actually happened
| Measure | Close | Change | Marginalia |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 3,861.59 | −56.73 · −1.45% | an ordinary bad Friday, on an extraordinary day |
| Silicon Valley Bank | $209 billion | assets at the end of 2022 — the second-largest bank failure in American history | |
| The run | $42 billion in a day | withdrawn Thursday; roughly $100 billion more was queued for Friday morning | |
| The trigger | $1.8 billion | the loss booked on selling bonds it had promised itself it would hold | |
| Two days later | Signature Bank | $110 billion, closed Sunday, March 12 — and the emergency backstop arrived the same evening |
Sources
- FDIC press release — FDIC Acts to Protect All Depositors of the former Silicon Valley Bank — https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23019.html
- CNBC — Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators in biggest bank failure since the financial crisis — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-is-shut-down-by-regulators-fdic-to-protect-insured-deposits.html
- Federal Reserve OIG — Material Loss Review of Silicon Valley Bank — https://oig.federalreserve.gov/reports/board-material-loss-review-silicon-valley-bank-sep2023.pdf
- Robinhood market-data feed — SPX day bar; SIVB inactive (delisted), bank figures from the FDIC